Togo Country Snapshot : Economist Intelligence Unit - The Economist

DOMESTIC POLITICS: The outcome of the February 2010 presidential election will have a major impact on political prospects during 2009/10. This poll could become the country's first genuinely free and fair presidential election. However, there is far more at stake in this presidential contest; the president enjoys significant executive authority under the constitution, which means that it is likely to be closely fought, with the potential for sparking violence and instability. The risks will be magnified if the president, Mr Gnassingbe (who will represent the RPT in 2010) comes close to defeat. Such an eventuality could potentially spark a clampdown by the ruling elite and the army that would endanger Togo's democratic transformation.

Mr Gnassingbe's main challenger at the poll is likely to be Gilchrist Olympio, the veteran leader of the Union des forces de changement (UFC), who was effectively barred from taking part in the 2003 and 2005 polls because of strict new residency requirements imposed in 2002. However, these were overturned in August as part of revisions to the electoral code. A key factor in determining opposition prospects will be the degree of unity that they can achieve.

The UFC and the smaller Comite d'action pour le renouveau (CAR)--which together won 45% of the votes in 2007, compared with 39% for the RPT--have tentatively agreed to support a single candidate, but it remains unclear whether the CAR would be willing to back Mr Olympio. Supporters of minor parties (who won 15% of the vote in 2007 but no seats) could play a key role and will be wooed by both main opposition parties.

Mr Gnassingbe is likely to make a strong bid for re-election, based on his record of political and economic reform, and the restoration of relations with donors. As the incumbent, he will also benefit from the party's well-organised electoral machinery, state controls over the media and support from his Kabye ethnic group, which is dominant in the north of the country.

Mr Olympio, by contrast, represents the Ewe, Togo's largest ethnic group (which dominates the south), and it is this confluence of ethnic, geographic, and party divisions that will continue to exacerbate political risk in Togo. Togo's democracy has fragile foundations, and there is a danger that the army and the RPT, with Mr Gnassingbe's blessing, could resort to vote-rigging or force to prevent a loss of power (after four decades of RPT hegemony) if an opposition victory seemed imminent, despite the damage to internal and external relations.

Predicting election outcomes, especially in Africa, is a difficult task, although the Economist Intelligence Unit currently thinks that Mr Gnassingbe will emerge victorious by a small margin and will continue his policy of political and economic reform.

Source: Togo: Country outlook

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